Every quarter, the deal market finds a new focal point. This fall, it’s vision care. The fundamentals are too solid to overlook. Aging populations, a rebound in elective procedures, and steady demand for diagnostics have made ophthalmology one of healthcare’s more resilient growth stories.

Private-equity capital is edging back into the sector after a brief pause. Investors like what they see: recurring revenue, healthy margins, and the ability to scale through disciplined integration. In other words, this is not a story about expansion for expansion’s sake — it’s about operational leverage.

Why Vision Care Is Surfacing

Market size tells part of the story. U.S. vision-care revenue, roughly $24 billion in 2022, is projected to top $33 billion by 2028. Demand spans both essential and lifestyle procedures — cataract, LASIK, dry-eye, and diagnostics — creating a steady mix of necessity and choice.

Recent transactions follow a pattern. Scale matters, but infrastructure and differentiation matter more. Strategic partners are looking for platforms with mature systems — billing, scheduling, diagnostics, and data — ready to integrate. Practices that unite surgery, diagnostics, and optometry under one brand are commanding premium multiples. Continuity at the physician level remains a key variable; culture and patient trust tend to move with the clinician.

The new rule of thumb: buy a platform that’s ready to scale, not one that needs rebuilding.

Value Drivers to Watch

  • Technology & Data: AI-assisted diagnostics and imaging are becoming table stakes.

  • Ancillary Services: Multi-discipline centers outperform single-focus models on valuation.

  • Operational Discipline: Shared services and centralized systems de-risk integration.

  • Location & Brand: Regional density and strong local reputation continue to set premium prices.

  • Transition Readiness: Smooth leadership continuity drives post-close success.

In the next wave of deals, the differentiator won’t just be scale — it will be tech-enabled scalability.

The ripple effects of this consolidation wave are showing up everywhere — from founder conversations to investor deal flow. Here’s how it’s playing out across the table for each group:

  • For founders: The market is selective but rewarding. Strategic partners are willing to pay up for well-run, growth-ready operations.

  • For investors: Vision care is becoming one of healthcare’s most attractive specialty verticals — recurring demand, favorable payer mix, and room for roll-up efficiency.

  • For operators: Integration is where value is created or lost. Building repeatable systems before a transaction compounds enterprise value.

Expect continued consolidation among regional platforms, with both healthcare and non-traditional entrants eyeing the space. AI, workflow automation, and predictive diagnostics will increasingly influence valuation multiples.

The opportunity is real — but so are the execution risks. Regulatory friction, provider shortages, and uneven tech adoption can all slow value creation.

Success in this market will come from scaling with discipline — aligning operational maturity, data advantage, and patient-first care.

Closing Lens — What’s Catching My Eye

We continue to track developments shaping this market closely.

Alan Arnstein,  Chief Business Development Officer, RAD Intel